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Dragons in the Desert

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Attack on Taiwan

Any attack on Taiwan would have been made after a complete analysis of the effects of such an attack on the region, the response of the US and other allies to the island, and subduing the population prior to any US intervention. 



Part One: The Historic Context

The Root Of Tension

At its core, the aim of China in terms of policy toward Taiwan is to secure the return of the island to unify with the mainland under one nation. At the very least, to prevent its declaration of independence form the mainland or any attempts to secure full state recognition in the United Nations.


If China believes Washington DC will not act to deter, it would most likely use the tool of force to achieve its objectives. But force would be considered against a back drop of cost benefit analysis. 


China does wish to become a recognized, legitimate state in the world, and to be perceived as a reliable economic partner, as well as a recognition of its ability to assist in any geopolitical matters around the globe. 



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